West African Economies Show Resilience But Face External Risks

West Africa demonstrated robust economic performance in 2025, with GDP growth reaching 4.8% - one of the strongest showings in recent years. Inflation declined significantly across the region, while fiscal deficits narrowed and debt ratios improved.

Nigeria remains the dominant economy at 41.2% of regional GDP, followed by Ghana (16.3%) and Côte d’Ivoire (14%). While these gains are encouraging, challenges remain in translating economic growth into sufficient job creation and poverty reduction.

Uncertainties Ahead

The outlook for 2026-2027 is less certain due to:

• Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East
• Rising energy prices
• Food security concerns
• Potential disruptions to global shipping routes

While regional GDP growth is forecast at 4.7% for 2026 (slightly below 2025), policymakers can leverage opportunities presented by:

• Favorable commodity prices for oil, gold, and minerals
• Increased production in key sectors like Nigerian oil, Ghanaian gold, and Guinean bauxite
• Strengthened external balances from improved export performance

Key Risks to Watch

• Prolonged fuel subsidies could strain public finances
• Fertilizer shortages threaten food security
• Renewed inflationary pressures from higher food and energy costs
• Exchange rate volatility with a stronger US dollar
• Potential electricity outages and tighter monetary policy

The ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development’s latest outlook emphasizes that while West Africa entered 2026 from a position of strength, proactive management of external shocks will be crucial to sustain momentum.