MTN Finds New Efficiency in Ghana as Currency Fluctuations Impact Nigeria

MTN Group is experiencing a notable shift in its earnings profile, with Ghana emerging as its most valuable market despite having fewer subscribers than Nigeria. This change underscores the growing importance of macroeconomic stability for mobile network operators in Africa.

The numbers tell a clear story: MTN Ghana now generates $6.76 average revenue per user (ARPU), almost double Nigeria’s $3.60, even after recent tariff increases in Nigeria boosted its ARPU by 65.89%. This efficiency is particularly striking given that Ghana has only 31.2 million subscribers compared to Nigeria’s 87.3 million.

Why Ghana Is Outperforming

The difference stems from contrasting macroeconomic environments. While Nigeria continues to drive subscriber growth, inflation and currency volatility compress earnings in dollar terms. In contrast, Ghana’s stability allows MTN to retain value more effectively:

• Service revenue rose 36.2% in Ghana in 2025
• EBITDA margins reached 60.1%, compared to 52.7% in Nigeria
• Inflation declined from 23.5% to 5.4% in Ghana throughout the year
• The Ghanaian cedi strengthened by roughly 40% against the dollar

Nigeria Still Drives Volume, But Less Value

MTN Nigeria remains the group’s largest market by subscriber count and service revenue (₦5.2 trillion or $3.77 billion). However, its efficiency is constrained by persistent inflation and currency fluctuations:

• While the naira strengthened to ₦1,400/$ in 2025 from ₦1,500/$, it’s still weaker than pre-2024 levels
• Inflation closed at 15.5% for the year
• ARPU remains below its early 2023 peak of $5.03

Regional Differences

MTN South Africa sits in between with an ARPU of $5.32, benefiting from a stronger postpaid base but facing slower growth due to market competition and modest GDP expansion (just 0.4% year-on-year).

Overall, MTN’s performance highlights a critical trend: as the company expands across Africa, its most valuable markets may not always be its largest in terms of subscriber numbers. The ability to generate efficient revenue from each user is becoming increasingly important for sustained financial success.