MTN Nigeria’s Valuation Puzzle

Investors may be overlooking the true worth of MTN Nigeria, one of Africa’s leading telecom operators. Despite remarkable financial performance and market dominance, analysts suggest the share price (currently around ₦790-₦800) doesn’t fully reflect its potential.

Key Financial Highlights:

• Subscribers: Over 95 million, representing 51% of Nigeria’s total telecom users - a commanding market position
• Profit Rebound: From a loss in 2024 to ₦1.11 trillion profit after tax (PAT) in 2025
• Dividend Payout: ₦419.91 billion at ₦20 per share in 2025
• Q1 2026 Performance: PAT more than doubled year-on-year to ₦355.5 billion, fueled by data revenue and fintech expansion

Why the Disconnect?

While short-term factors like earnings reports influence trading decisions, MTN’s scale and strategic importance may warrant a higher valuation.

With increasing smartphone adoption and data usage in Nigeria, revenue potential remains significant - even after recent tariff adjustments.

Furthermore, MTN controls a substantial portion of the digital economy through its extensive subscriber base.

Historical Share Price Trajectory:

The share price has shown volatility influenced by macroeconomic conditions but has generally trended upward:

• 2024-Early 2025: Traded in the ₦200-₦300 range amid economic challenges
• Early 2026: Rose to the ₦700-₦800 range with improving economic outlook
• May 2026: Reached an all-time high of ₦915 following strong Q1 earnings

Looking Ahead:

Future shocks - be they regulatory, economic, or competitive - will test MTN’s resilience and reveal its true valuation floor.

The company’s long-term growth potential remains solid given Nigeria’s expanding digital economy and rising demand for mobile data services.